• 3.18.25
• General

BORDER NUMBERS PORTEND LESS CANADIAN VISITATION THIS YEAR

As always, we are watching the monthly car counts at our northern border crossings as a tangible gauge of trends related to Canadian visitation and spending this year. Numbers are available monthly after review and approval by U.S. Customs & Border Protection.
 

For the month of February 2025, we saw a 16% decline compared with February 2024. Other major crossings saw similar declines including Peace Bridge -13%; Niagara Falls/Lewiston-Queenston -15%; Thousand Islands -19%; and Ogdensburg -20%. The Michigan bridge declines ranged from 2% to 17%, in part reflecting greater commuter traffic than here.
 

In our region, the decline is attributable in large part to the poor exchange rate, now around 70 cents on the dollar, and is in line with years past when the rate was this poor for our Canadian friends. There is no question, however, that February marked the beginnings of some Canadians choosing to avoid U.S. visitation based on their reaction to U.S. tariffs and U.S. dealings with their country. And we are already hearing of annual group cancellations and normal summer bookings not being made. We would anticipate more of this latter factor showing this month as U.S. tariffs began in early and mid-March as did Canada's response including a 25% surcharge at the border on a range of U.S. purchases. And, of course, this dynamic is in turn further weakening the Canadian dollar.
 

The impact of the tariffs on the mindset of our Canadian neighbors and therefore on the very special and historic social bonds between our two peoples is of acute concern. 
 

In a recent Leger poll, 27% of Quebecers identified the U.S. as an "enemy" with just 30% identifying us as an "ally". 40% of Canadians indicate they now fear losing their jobs. Canadian tour operators report 40%+ cancellations of U.S. tours. Canadian airlines are looking at cutting down U.S. flights. Our own participation recently in the Montreal Bike Show went through just 2.5 boxes of travel guides vs. 20 boxes last year. It is an old rule of politics that feelings aren't right or wrong. They just are and must be taken seriously. 
 

SO, WHAT CAN WE DO? First, we need to be mindful that even with a decline, a great many are still coming, and we all need to show our appreciation and hospitality even more than usual. Our Visitors Bureau will soon share some messaging and tools for North Country businesses of all kinds. And we continue nurturing our many Quebec partnerships and connections, in part for after this period.
 

And there will be an "after". And we will continue through active messaging and outreach to encourage a conclusion as soon as possible so "after" will arrive.